to be right.
It is OK 🙂
Obviously I too would have preferred your predictions to be less accurate. But when even an octopus is better at predicting World Cup results I can’t really complain…
I want to see this poulpe predicting correctly out of 32 nations which ones are going to play the final. Once he is getting this right, we talk.
His chance of getting all eight matches right was 1/2^8 (not including the possibility of draws in the group stage). That’s definitely more difficult than picking one winner out of 32 participants.
As you so nicely calculated Paul’s chances: What were mine to get the two finalists and the world cup winner right?
I don’t know because you are not a cephalopod mollusk randomly picking which mussel it wants to have for lunch.
If you had had to guess the tossing of a coin your chances would have been (2/32)*(1/31)*(1/2). Obviously the odds of North Korea winning the cup were not the same as for Spain and therefore a Spanish win against the Netherlands was less difficult to guess.
After erroneously betting on a final Brazil v Spain I should probably leave it at but I’d say that a priori the probability was below 10 per cent.
Honestly, the more I think about it I’m convinced that my prediction was fine. I can only blame the referees…
😀 You are brilliant!
And as life is good to us; there is always someone to blame: referees, mollusks, or towels from a parallel universe.
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